Ultimate Guide on Cricket Betting Odds and Probability

Cricket Odds Explained

Looking at cricket odds for the first time can prove to be a bit dauting. They are represented either in decimal or fractions format which for those that hated mathematics can be a nightmare. However, once you familiarise yourself with these odds, placing bets on your favourite matches and markets becomes easy.

First off you need to understand that every bookmaker will attach a profit margin to the outcomes. This is typically around 7% and the way to keep this down is by hunting for better odds on different cricket betting sites. Hunting for odds is crucial and we have covered the importance of exploring other sites in the Top 10 Common Betting Mistakes.

Understanding Probability

If you break down sports betting to its most basic level, then it involves punters predicting the outcome of a certain event. The betting sites reward you if you guess the correct outcome and penalise you (by taking your stake) if you have guessed incorrectly. Take any event and there are likely to be some events / outcomes associated with it. Flipping a coin has two possible outcomes (heads or tails) and there is a 50% chance of each outcome. Rolling the dice has six outcomes and the probability of a certain number appearing is 16.67% (1/6 * 100). Betting odds therefore represent the likelihood of an event occurring.

Betting on Cricket

Betting on a cricket match between two teams presents you with three possible outcomes. Either team can win or due to certain circumstances a draw can occur as well. Draws are common feature of test cricket and the matches can last if five days. You can also bet on the outcome of a series.

Let’s look at an example to further explain cricket betting odds. Consider a test match being played between India and Pakistan. Given their recent form, India is most likely to win the match and are given odds of 1.5 (or 1-2) whereas Pakistan are given odds of 2.75 (or 7-4). Given that a draw is a possibility as well, the bookmaker provides odds of 3.75 (or 11-4) to cover that as well.

If you have placed Rs.10 on India and the outcome comes true, then you set to receive Rs.15 which includes your original stake of Rs10 plus the Rs.5 profit. If you had placed the same amount on Pakistan instead and that comes true, then the returns will be even greater. That outcome will return Rs.27.50 and a draw will return an even higher amount of Rs. 37.50

Most bookmakers will provide a ‘Draw No Bet’ if you wish to eliminate that outcome from your calculations. This implies that the punter will receive his / her money back in the event the draw occurs. In order to provide this option, the bookmaker will most likely reduce the odds offered on the win options. The bookmaker can also provide a market known as ‘Double Chance’ where you can select the winner and draw option at a combined price.

Spread Betting

A more recent innovation to cricket betting is the concept of spread betting. This concept is taken from the financial stock market and is popular with ODI and Twenty20 Cricket. Moreover, it opens hundreds of betting opportunities within play markets and a cash out facility. However, spread betting is not for everyone and we would never encourage you to just dabble in it. It is best to fully understand how it works before investing in it.

The concept of spread betting can be explained via a simple example of determining the total runs scored by a team in a match. The bookmakers open the spread betting market and you bet higher or lower than their spread. If you think the score will be higher then you buy and if you think it will be lower, then you sell. Your proximity to the actual score determines how much you win or lose.

Let’s review this with an example. Consider a T20 match between India and Bangladesh. The bookmakers have India pegged to make around 140 – 150 in their innings. You decide to buy at 150 at 3 points per run and the actual score turns out to be 180. This means you win 30 x 2: 60 points. On the flip side if India end up scoring 110, then you are set to lose 40 x 2: 80 points. You can get similar spreads on the numbers of wickets taken by a bowler or the number of runs scored by a batsman. If you are getting your feet wet into spread betting, then we would recommend implementing a stop loss as an insurance against taking significant losses.

Title: Ultimate Guide on Cricket Betting Odds and Probability

Posted On: 02/12/2019

Author: Tony Willets